The Market Isn’t Crashing. It’s Cycling. Here’s What That Means for Home Sellers, Home Buyers and Investors

The real estate cycle is nothing new. Clément Juglar identified it back in 1860 as a 7–11 year cycle of economic ups and downs. This market is following that same historical pattern. Most of the country peaked in 2022–2023. A few states such as Illinois, Connecticut and New Jersey are still bumping along the top near their peaks, but for the rest of us - including Asheville - we’re now deep into the correction phase.

Inventory has surged, price cuts are up, and sellers are adjusting to a more competitive environment. The headlines may call it a slowdown - or a crash depending on the source - but for those familiar with market cycles, this is exactly what a reset looks like.

In short: real estate is local, but pricing pressure is national. And right now, it’s leaning in favor of the buyer. Remember - although these figures are State-wide - your zip code may differ in increase or drop in forecast value.

Seller Strategies in a declining market

So, what’s the upshot of all this?

If you’re a seller in today’s market—especially in 2025—it’s time to act decisively. Think of your listing like a seat at the best table in the casino. To win, you need strategy, speed, and positioning. Let the emotion go, and train your poker face to focus on your next great adventure; and chapter in life.

• Price it right from day one.If you missed that mark while “testing the market,” it’s not too late, but time is working against you. If you're not getting at least one showing per week, it’s time to get aggressive. Ask your agent how many showings they’d expect for your price point, and adjust accordingly. In a declining market, waiting a month to react can cost you significantly more than adjusting week by week.
  

  Let's use a market for an example: in Asheville, NC, if your home is listed at $600,000 or more, is professionally photographed, and properly marketed, and you're still not seeing 1–2 showings per week - it’s time to drop the price by 5%, at least. That may feel dramatic, but you don’t have time to waste. The market will make the cut for you if you don’t do it first. Discuss with your agent.
  

  If you have a recent appraisal, highlight it. Lead your listing description with “Priced below appraisal.” It doesn’t sound desperate; it sounds honest. And buyers are listening for that now more than ever. Never price your home 2% higher than you think you will take - that is old-fashioned real-estate thinking.

  
  

  Talk to your agent about realistic showing expectations. Common sense says you should be seeing at least two per week. If you’re not, implement weekly price drops until showings return, then actually listen to the feedback you're getting. Best of all, celebrate when the offer comes in - and you get to move on! Or choose to hold out for another 10 years or so - after all, real estate tends to keep going up in value over time. Or you could rent it out.
  

• Use an experienced agent. Use an experienced agent. The real estate industry sees more than 75% of new agents leave within the first few years. While it may look like “easy money” from the outside, every property sale is different and can present unexpected challenges. Agents who have sold 24+ homes per year, have years of experience, and have strong mentorship behind them are equipped to guide you safely through the process; whether the market is rising, declining, or cresting.
  

  If you want to hear the real stories behind the transactions, you’re welcome to listen to our 14 years of real estate radio shows; there are plenty of lessons learned and cautionary tales. Many of the agents who entered the business within the last seven years have only known a rising market, where simply placing a sign in the yard and a lockbox on the door may have been enough. An experienced agent knows how to reduce stress and protect your equity in any market.
  

• Know where the pressure is hitting hardest. Condos, townhomes, and higher-end properties in the top 10% of pricing tend to take the biggest hit in a downturn. If you're in one of these categories, act quickly and strategically.
  

• Avoid the “I’ll re-list next year” trap. If you’re reading this in 2025, look at Juglar’s cycle. Waiting a year could mean chasing the market down. If you're holding, have a 10-year mindset; not 10 months. This is the most common trap that Ro has watched since she started working in real estate in 2007.
  

• Remember: it’s a two-sided market. If you’re selling and buying, the home you purchase is likely declining too. You can call us to check out that market and do a deep dive on current figures in any zip code in the USA. Motivated sellers are everywhere. Use that to your advantage.
  

• Don’t get caught up in political noise. This isn’t about who's in office, it’s the natural part of an economic cycle. But this one is intensified by what Nick Gerli of Reventure calls the worst affordability crisis in U.S. history. Home prices have far outpaced wages in most markets.
  

• Certify Pre-Own your home. Get an inspection, fix what you can, and disclose what you can’t. Transparency builds trust and reduces fallout. Buyers are nervous in this market, and marketing your home as Certified Pre-Owned can ease those anxieties. CPO Expert Agents are all over the USA, following a methodology that was created in the 2008 home crash. CPO is an effective process in declining and expanding markets. We hold webinars frequently to go over what this looks like, or find your agent here.

  
  

• Get your full market offer. Enter your home at www.CashCPO.com for a full market offer.

Bottom line: Homes are still selling, but only the ones that compete. If you're serious about selling, now is the time to act. Stop waiting for the market to come back to you - it won’t. At least not for some years. If you are in an expanding market place, CPO your home for the best value, and reach out to us so we can look at the zip code where you are buying in the future. We can do a deep dive on zoom anywhere in the country! Give us a few details here and we'll get in touch right away.

Get your home sold so you can move on, whether that means spending time with grandkids, caring for aging parents, moving into Senior Living, upsizing for a new baby, or finally starting that next chapter. Whatever your reason, don’t let a stagnant listing hold you back. And if homes are still selling in a reasonable time in your market; CPO it for the best value and to reduce the chance of a fall out, which happens all too frequently. Find your agent.

In this market, price, presentation, and positioning aren’t optional, they’re everything. The homes that win are the ones that show well, are priced right, and adjust quickly when the market shifts.

Control what you can, make strategic moves, and don’t let time, or equity, slip away while you wait.Listen to all of these topics being covered in depth on our 13yr long Radio show. Reach out for a deep dive on your zip code

Nationwide figures

The National Picture – June 2025 – Home Price Forecasts Source: Reventure

The map above shows what’s happening:

• Blue areas reflect declining home price forecasts. The darker the blue, the steeper the projected drop.

• Red areas are holding near peak levels, with smaller increases than we’ve seen in recent years.

Here’s the big picture. You might be focused on your local market, but across the U.S., often 40–60% of buyers are coming from out of state. That matters, because if they’re selling in a declining market (which is often the case), their buying power in your market is likely reduced.

We’re just over the crest of Clément Juglar’s historical economic cycle, where prices can start falling faster. It’s a normal correction, not a crash. This shift creates opportunity, especially for buyers who aren’t also trying to sell in a weakening market.

In short: real estate is local, but pricing pressure is national. And right now, it’s leaning in favor of the buyer. Remember - although these figures are State-wide - your zip code may differ in increase or drop in forecast value.

Price drops are one of the most telling indicators I watch. When the percentage of listings with price reductions spikes well above historic norms, it signals a market shift. In many areas, we’re seeing 50% of active listings with a price drop, compared to the usual 10–20%. That’s not just a blip. In fact, these elevated price cuts have been happening for a year or more in many markets.

This matters because once these homes close, they’ll reset the comparable sales data lower. That directly affects appraisals, making it harder for future buyers to secure financing, especially if their offer doesn’t align with the new, lower comps. It’s a compounding effect that can stall deals and pressure pricing even further.

Source: Reventure

Red areas indicate a higher percentage of price cuts compared to previous years. Blue areas reflect more stable pricing.

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water, Zillow has released a suggested offer platform for your home in some regions. And yes, a lot of your buyers look on there. Check out the 'explore offer strategies' section if your home is currently listed. Here's an example, showing a suggested 'Strong' offer on a home listed at $825,000 of $775,000, with Zillow's estimate of winning the offer being over 90%.

Strategies in a shifting Market

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water, Zillow has launched a suggested offer platform for homes in certain regions. Many buyers are checking it out. If your home is currently listed, explore the 'explore offer strategies' section. For example, a home listed at $825,000 might have a suggested 'Strong' offer of $775,000, with Zillow estimating a winning chance of over 90%. If you're buying, make sure to work with an experienced real estate agent, as Zillow's suggestions may not accurately reflect your market; after all, you and your agent have actually been in the home. This is especially crucial in markets where homes are unique. Algorithms struggle to estimate the values of homes that differ from their neighbors or don't fit into the six common models built at that time.

This is an actual example of a post on Zillow on a listing:

CHARLOTTE, NC

The Charlotte, NC market is experiencing a correction, though not as sharply as some of the more heavily impacted regions in the country. It is still feeling the influence of national trends; particularly from the continued flow of buyers relocating from higher-cost states. Many of these buyers are selling in markets where prices have softened; they often arrive with reduced purchasing power compared to a few years ago. This shift is affecting local pricing strategies, appraisal outcomes, and how both buyers and sellers negotiate.

For those not local: Charlotte is located in Mecklenburg County, with nearby communities such as Huntersville and Cornelius to the north, Gastonia in Gaston County to the west, and Matthews and Waxhaw in Union County to the southeast. Charlotte is recognized as the second-largest banking and financial center in the United States, behind only New York City. The presence of Bank of America, Truist headquarters, and major Wells Fargo operations has driven decades of population growth, business relocation, and stable employment opportunities.

Charlotte also offers a temperate four-season climate; mild winters and warm summers make outdoor living and recreation appealing throughout the year. Its central location provides easy access to both the NC coast to the east and the Blue Ridge Mountains to the west. It is also only a couple of hours from the popular mountain city of Asheville, NC; giving residents convenient weekend access to hiking, restaurants, craft breweries, music, and arts. This balance of career opportunity and lifestyle continues to draw new residents from across the country.

2025 - 2026 - Inventory is building, and homes are no longer selling as quickly as they were during the peak of the pandemic-era surge.

The shift in market conditions means strategy matters more than it did during the automatic-offer period of recent years. Sellers can still achieve strong results; however, correct pricing out of the gate, thoughtful presentation, and experienced guidance are now key to protecting equity and reducing the risk of unnecessary price cuts. Buyers of course, are getting better deals. Charlotte Home Forecast: November 2025, source Reventure Reach out for a deep dive on your zip code

Price Cuts: Percentage of Active Listings With Reductions

This chart shows the percentage of homes currently on the market that have taken at least one price reduction. It serves as a leading indicator of market direction. A higher percentage suggests that sellers are adjusting expectations; often due to fewer showings, longer days on market, or increased competition. A lower percentage suggests stronger confidence among sellers; fewer feel the need to reduce to attract buyers.

These percentages are based on active listings, not closed sales. The homes shown here will typically close in the coming months, either at the reduced price or close to it. Tracking price cut trends helps reveal where pricing is heading before it appears in closed-sale data, making it one of the earliest signals of a changing market.

Investors and buyers watch these numbers closely to identify where they are most likely to secure stronger value or negotiate favorable terms. Sellers use this information to decide whether to:

• Hold the property through the rest of the market cycle; referencing the Clement Juglar 7 to 11 year cycle

• Price strategically to secure a sale now• Or rent the property and allow appreciation to build over time.

Understanding where your neighborhood falls on this chart can help guide your next step with clarity rather than guesswork. Source: Reventure, November 2025

Reach out for a deep dive on your zip code

Affordability: Value to Income Ratio

This chart shows the Value / Income Ratio, which compares the typical home value in an area to the median household income. It indicates how attainable homeownership is for local buyers who live and work in the community. A higher ratio means homes are more expensive relative to income; a lower ratio means homes are more reasonably matched to what local households earn.

For context: our grandparents often purchased homes at an affordability ratio of 2 times household income. In other words, if the household earned $25,000, the home they purchased might have cost around $50,000. Many states in the center of the country still offer this 2 to 3 times ratio today. However, in many coastal and migration-attracting states, the ratio has climbed to 6, 7, or even 8 times household income.

This widening gap is what Nick Gerli, CEO of Reventure, refers to as “the worst affordability crisis in history.” When home values rise significantly faster than local incomes, the ability for people to live where they work is strained; this affects everything from neighborhood stability to school staffing, small business viability, and long-term civic growth.

Affordability trends also act as market direction indicators:

• When the ratio moves higher, fewer local buyers can afford to purchase

• This reduces demand and increases the risk of longer market times and potential price adjustments• When the ratio moves lower, local demand strengthens; this helps stabilize pricing and increase buyer activity

Investors and buyers monitor affordability to determine where long-term value and sustainable demand are most likely to hold. Sellers use this information to decide whether to:

• Hold the property through the rest of the market cycle; referencing the Clement Juglar 7 to 11 year cycle• Price strategically to attract the current buyer pool• Or rent the property and allow time and equity growth to work in their favor

Understanding your local Value / Income Ratio is essential to planning your next move with clarity rather than sentiment or headlines.

Source: Zillow; US Census Bureau: November 2025 Reach out for a deep dive on your zip code

ASHEVILLE, NC

The Asheville, NC market is also experiencing a correction, although not as steep as in some of the more heavily affected regions across the country. Asheville tends to adjust more gradually because of its strong lifestyle appeal and its steady stream of relocation buyers. Between 40 percent and 60 percent of homebuyers in the Asheville area come from other markets, most often larger metropolitan areas. Many of these buyers have visited the region for years before choosing to purchase; Asheville has long been a place where people vacation, return to again and again, and eventually decide to retire or buy a second home.

In 2025, the tourism sector experienced a sharp decline, due mainly to Helene, when the region experienced catastrophic flooding. Homes, businesses, and lives were lost, and the recovery has taken time. The River Arts District, formerly the second most-visited area in Asheville and home to more than 350 working art studios, galleries, and creative small businesses, lost approximately 90 percent of its businesses, as many sat along the river. The Biltmore Estate, which has consistently ranked among the top three tourist destinations in the United States, also experienced a significant downturn in visitors as travel shifted and road access was impacted.

For those not local: Asheville is located in Buncombe County, with Hendersonville to the south in Henderson County, and Waynesville to the west in Haywood County. Nearby communities including Black Mountain, Weaverville, Arden, and Fletcher each have their own micro-market conditions. Asheville is nationally known for its independent arts scene, music venues, farm-to-table restaurants, craft breweries, mountain views, and outdoor access.

Asheville offers a temperate four-season climate; spring and fall are especially popular, and summer temperatures are cooler than many Southeastern cities. Winter is typically mild. This climate, combined with mountain scenery, continues to attract retirees, remote workers, and second-home buyers.

2025 - 2026: Inventory has been increasing, and homes are not selling as quickly as they were during the peak pandemic-era relocation wave. Pricing is becoming more strategic. Some listings are requiring price adjustments to attract buyers who now have more choices across Buncombe County and surrounding areas.

The shift in market conditions means strategy matters more than it did during the automatic-offer years. Sellers can still achieve strong outcomes; however, accurate pricing, thoughtful preparation, and experienced guidance are essential to protecting equity. Buyers in turn are gaining more negotiation power and a wider selection of homes.

Asheville Home Forecast: November 2025 - Source: Reventure Reach out for a deep dive on your zip code

Table of the metro area - Nov 2025 - home price forecast

Price Cuts - % of current listings

Price Cuts: Percentage of Active Listings With Reductions

This chart shows the percentage of homes currently on the market that have taken at least one price reduction. It serves as a leading indicator of market direction. A higher percentage suggests that sellers are adjusting expectations; often due to fewer showings, longer days on market, or increased competition. A lower percentage suggests stronger confidence among sellers; fewer feel the need to reduce to attract buyers.

These percentages are based on active listings, not closed sales. The homes shown here will typically close in the coming months, either at the reduced price or close to it. Tracking price cut trends helps reveal where pricing is heading before it appears in closed-sale data, making it one of the earliest signals of a changing market.

Investors and buyers watch these numbers closely to identify where they are most likely to secure stronger value or negotiate favorable terms. Sellers use this information to decide whether to:

• Hold the property through the rest of the market cycle; referencing the Clement Juglar 7 to 11 year cycle

• Price strategically to secure a sale now• Or rent the property and allow appreciation to build over time.

Understanding where your neighborhood falls on this chart can help guide your next step with clarity rather than guesswork. Source: Reventure, November 2025

Reach out for a deep dive on your zip code

Affordability: Value to Income Ratio

This chart shows the Value / Income Ratio, which compares the typical home value in an area to the median household income. It indicates how attainable homeownership is for local buyers who live and work in the community. A higher ratio means homes are more expensive relative to income; a lower ratio means homes are more reasonably matched to what local households earn.

For context: our grandparents often purchased homes at an affordability ratio of 2 times household income. In other words, if the household earned $25,000, the home they purchased might have cost around $50,000. Many states in the center of the country still offer this 2 to 3 times ratio today. However, in many coastal and migration-attracting states, the ratio has climbed to 6, 7, or even 8 times household income.

This widening gap is what Nick Gerli, CEO of Reventure, refers to as “the worst affordability crisis in history.” When home values rise significantly faster than local incomes, the ability for people to live where they work is strained; this affects everything from neighborhood stability to school staffing, small business viability, and long-term civic growth.

Affordability trends also act as market direction indicators:

• When the ratio moves higher, fewer local buyers can afford to purchase

• This reduces demand and increases the risk of longer market times and potential price adjustments• When the ratio moves lower, local demand strengthens; this helps stabilize pricing and increase buyer activity

Investors and buyers monitor affordability to determine where long-term value and sustainable demand are most likely to hold. Sellers use this information to decide whether to:

• Hold the property through the rest of the market cycle; referencing the Clement Juglar 7 to 11 year cycle• Price strategically to attract the current buyer pool• Or rent the property and allow time and equity growth to work in their favor
  

Understanding your local Value / Income Ratio is essential to planning your next move with clarity rather than sentiment or headlines.

Source: Zillow; US Census Bureau: November 2025 Reach out for a deep dive on your zip code