The Market Isn’t Crashing. It’s Cycling. Here’s What That Means for Asheville, and Beyond.

The real estate cycle is nothing new. Clément Juglar identified it back in 1860 as a 7–11 year cycle of economic ups and downs. This market is following that same historical pattern. Most of the country peaked in 2022–2023. A few states such as Illinois, Connecticut and New Jersey are still bumping along the top near their peaks, but for the rest of us - including Asheville - we’re now deep into the correction phase.

Inventory has surged, price cuts are up, and sellers are adjusting to a more competitive environment. The headlines may call it a slowdown - or a crash depending on the source - but for those familiar with market cycles, this is exactly what a reset looks like.

The National Picture – June 2025 – Home Price Forecasts Source: Reventure

The map above shows what’s happening:

• Blue areas reflect declining home price forecasts. The darker the blue, the steeper the projected drop.

• Red areas are holding near peak levels, with smaller increases than we’ve seen in recent years.
  

Here’s the big picture. You might be focused on your local market, but across the U.S., often 40–60% of buyers are coming from out of state. That matters, because if they’re selling in a declining market (which is often the case), their buying power in your market is likely reduced.

We’re just over the crest of Clément Juglar’s historical economic cycle, where prices can start falling faster. It’s a normal correction, not a crash. This shift creates opportunity, especially for buyers who aren’t also trying to sell in a weakening market.

In short: real estate is local, but pricing pressure is national. And right now, it’s leaning in favor of the buyer. Remember - although these figures are State-wide - your zip code may differ in increase or drop in forecast value.

Price drops are one of the most telling indicators I watch. When the percentage of listings with price reductions spikes well above historic norms, it signals a market shift. In many areas, we’re seeing 50% of active listings with a price drop, compared to the usual 10–20%. That’s not just a blip. In fact, these elevated price cuts have been happening for a year or more in many markets.

This matters because once these homes close, they’ll reset the comparable sales data lower. That directly affects appraisals, making it harder for future buyers to secure financing, especially if their offer doesn’t align with the new, lower comps. It’s a compounding effect that can stall deals and pressure pricing even further.

Source: Reventure

Red areas indicate a higher percentage of price cuts compared to previous years. Blue areas reflect more stable pricing.

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water, Zillow has released a suggested offer platform for your home in some regions. And yes, a lot of your buyers look on there. Check out the 'explore offer strategies' section if your home is currently listed. Here's an example, showing a suggested 'Strong' offer on a home listed at $825,000 of $775,000, with Zillow's estimate of winning the offer being over 90%.

Let’s break it down by region - specifically, one I pay close attention to because I live here. The Western North Carolina market is anchored by its key towns: Asheville, Hendersonville, and Waynesville. For this deep dive, we’ll focus on Asheville, which often serves as a bellwether for similar towns across the country.

Asheville is experiencing a market correction, though not as steep as some of the harder-hit regions. That said, it's still feeling the effects of broader national trends, especially from the influx of out-of-state buyers. These incoming buyers, many of whom are selling in declining markets, bring reduced purchasing power, which has started to influence local pricing and appraisal dynamics. For those not local, Asheville is in Buncombe County, Hendersonville in Henderson County, and Waynesville is in Haywood County. Red reflects much deeper price cuts as homes sit longer, and there are more homes on the market.

Zooming in to zip codes, using the price cuts as a guide, particularly to help sellers not 'chase down' the market:

So, what’s the upshot of all this?

If you’re a seller in today’s market—especially in 2025—it’s time to act decisively. Think of your listing like a seat at the best table in the casino. To win, you need strategy, speed, and positioning. Let the emotion go, and train your poker face to focus on your next great adventure; and chapter in life.

• Price it right from day one. If you missed that mark while “testing the market,” it’s not too late, but time is working against you. If you're not getting at least one showing per week, it’s time to get aggressive. Ask your agent how many showings they’d expect for your price point, and adjust accordingly. In a declining market, waiting a month to react can cost you significantly more than adjusting week by week. Especially if you are in the zip codes 28805 and 28778 currently. The latter also reflects the Swannanoa area, parts of which were hard-hit in Helene last fall.
  

  For example: in Asheville, NC, if your home is listed at $600,000 or more, is professionally photographed, and properly marketed, and you're still not seeing 1–2 showings per week—it’s time to drop the price by 5%, at least. That may feel dramatic, but you don’t have time to waste. The market will make the cut for you if you don’t do it first. Discuss with your agent.
  

  If you have a recent appraisal, highlight it. Lead your listing description with “Priced below appraisal.” It doesn’t sound desperate—it sounds honest. And buyers are listening for that now more than ever. Never price your home 2% higher than you think you will take - that is old-fashioned real-estate thinking.
  

  Talk to your agent about realistic showing expectations. Common sense says you should be seeing at least two per week. If you’re not, implement weekly price drops until showings return, then actually listen to the feedback you're getting. Best of all, celebrate when the offer comes in - and you get to move on! Or choose to hold out for another 10 years or so - after all, real estate tends to keep going up in value over time. Or you could rent it out.
  

• Know where the pressure is hitting hardest.  Condos, townhomes, and higher-end properties in the top 10% of pricing tend to take the biggest hit in a downturn. If you're in one of these categories, act quickly and strategically.
  

• Avoid the “I’ll re-list next year” trap.  If you’re reading this in 2025, look at Juglar’s cycle. Waiting a year could mean chasing the market down. If you're holding, have a 10-year mindset—not 10 months.
  

• Remember: it’s a two-sided market. If you’re selling and buying, the home you purchase is likely declining too. Motivated sellers are everywhere. Use that to your advantage.
  

• Don’t get caught up in political noise. This isn’t about who's in office—it’s the natural part of an economic cycle. But this one is intensified by what Nick Gerli of Reventure calls the worst affordability crisis in U.S. history. Home prices have far outpaced wages in most markets.
  

• Certify Pre-Own your home. Get an inspection, fix what you can, and disclose what you can’t. Transparency builds trust and reduces fallout. Buyers are nervous in this market, and marketing your home as Certified Pre-Owned can ease those anxieties.

  
  

• Get your full market offer. Enter your home at www.CashCPO.com for a full market offer.
  

Bottom line:  Homes are still selling, but only the ones that compete. If you're serious about selling, now is the time to act. Stop waiting for the market to come back to you - it won’t. At least not for some years.

Get your home sold so you can move on, whether that means spending time with grandkids, caring for aging parents, moving into Senior Living, upsizing for a new baby, or finally starting that next chapter. Whatever your reason, don’t let a stagnant listing hold you back.

In this market, price, presentation, and positioning aren’t optional, they’re everything. The homes that win are the ones that show well, are priced right, and adjust quickly when the market shifts.

Control what you can, make strategic moves, and don’t let time, or equity, slip away while you wait. Listen to all of these topics being covered in depth on our 13yr long Radio show